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The UK General Election of May 7th 2015

I have asterisked the links which I have found most useful but you may prefer some of the others!

Click here for Radio 4 Analysis ; How Voters Decide Parts  One and  Part Two Feb 20th and 27th  2017 . A must listen!!  ***

 

 Very informative article on the UK General Election of 2015 by Professor John Curtice.   ***

The UK General Election of 2015: Gresham College lecture by Professor Vernon Bogdanor.  New link added January 2017

Smith Institute Report on UK General Election of 2015

Official Labour Party Report on Labour's Defeat 2015: The Beckett Report

The Official Labour Party Report has also attracted considerable media comment. Here are four useful sources but you can easily find more.

  1. Guardian coverage
  2. Guardian coverage
  3. BBC coverage
  4. Spectator coverage

Why Labour Lost in 2015 : Independent Inquiry [Jon Cruddas]

 

Tweet

The UK General Election 2015: The Results

  1. Click here for BBC data on the UK result and the results in England,  Scotland , Wales and Northern Ireland
  2. Click here for  a House of Commons parliamentary Brief with detailed results data
  3. Click here for Ipsos Mori Publication : How Britain voted in 2015: voting and age, ethnicity, gender, social class etc  ***
  4. Click here for You Gov Publication: How Britain voted in 2015: voting and age, ethnicity, gender, social class etc  ***
  5. Click here for another You Gov Publication: contains graphics on demographics. ***
  6. Click here for Parliamentary Research Briefing : General Election 2015
  7. Click here for Electoral Reform Society publication on the 2015 General Election and the case for electoral reform.
  8. Click here for BBC coverage of the above report.
  9. Click here for Andrew Rawnsley Observer article on the 2015 General Election and the electoral system
  10. Click here  and here and here for information on Ethnicity and voting behaviour in 2015 from the Runnymede Trust. [3 Part article]

Summary Data on recent UK General Elections

Percentages of UK Votes Cast and Commons Seats Gained 1997-2015 [2015 N Ireland results can be found via in the above mentioned BBC link]

 

 

Vote % 1997

Seat % 1997

Vote % 2001

Seat % 2001

Vote% 2005

Seat % 2005

Vote % 2010

Seat % 2010

Vote%

2015

Seat % 2015

Seat No 2015

Seat Change 2010-2015

Cons

30.7

25.0

31.7

25.2

32.3

30.5

36.1

47.0

36.9

50.9

331

+24

Lab

43.4

63.4

40.7

62.7

35.2

55.1

29.0

39.8

30.4

33.7

232

-26

LibDem

16.8

7.0

18.3

7.9

22.0

9.6

23.0

8.8

7.9

1.2

8

-49

UKIP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.6

0.2

1

+1

Greens

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.8

0.2

 

1

  0

SNP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.7

8.6

 

56

+50

PC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.6

0.5

 

3

  0

Explaining the Result

1 Labour's Poor performance

Click here for "Learning the right lessons from Labour's 2015 defeat " by Jane Green and Chris Prosser who are members of the British Election Study Team.

Click here for a brief BBC summary of the above report

Click here for very detailed analysis from Renewal: A Journal of Social Democracy

Click here  for a very detailed technical analysis from Oxford University

Click here for Independent Summary of above report

Ipsos Mori publishes a monthly Political Monitor which among other things tracks trends in the relative popularity of the party leaders. Click here for the April 2015 Political Monitor and look at charts 7-20 to see the relative popularity of the party leaders. 

 

Ipsos Mori also publishes data tracking the Best Party on Key Issues. Click here for the April data on key political issues. Note that The Conservatives were perceived as having greater economic competence than Labour although Labour were ahead of the Conservatives on several other key political issues. 

Ipsos Mori publish data tracking long term trends in party identification. Click here for these data according to which more people  identified with Labour than with the Conservatives by May 2014

The British Social Attitudes Survey often includes information on trends in party identification. The following data is taken from  a recent BSA survey. What conclusions can be drawn from the data. Although not shown here it is important to try to analyse the relationships between the rise of UKIP and the SNP and the trends in party identification.

Trends in Strength of party Identification 1987-2015

  1987 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015
Strength of Party Identification            
Very strong 11 10 7 7 7 9
Fairly strong 35 27 29 28 29 32
Not very strong 40 46 49 46 41 38
None 8 10 12 13 16 15
Unweighted Base 2847 1355 3282 4268 3297 4328

 

Click here for You Gov Publication: How Britain voted in 2015: voting and age, ethnicity, gender, social class etc. Slide 3 has estimates of  newspaper readership and voting behaviour

 

  1. UK Polling Report
  2. Click here,  here  , here here    and here for IPSOS MORI data on  long term and  the most recent trends in voting intention. The 3rd and 4th links are to the most recently monthly Political Monitor and Issue Index respectively. The fifth link is to long term trends in the relative importance of different political issues.
  3. Click here for Ipsos Mori April 2015 Issues Index and Election Special. The latter has good information on Best Party on Key Issues at the time of 2015 General Election and previous General Elections. ****
  4. Click here  and then follow the relevant links for YouGov data on long term and the most recent trends in voting intention
  5. Click here for Observer/Opinium Poll data
  6. Click here for Guardian/ICM opinion polls
  7. Click here for Frank Furedi: Why the Polls got it so wrong
  8. Click here for Guardian article on explanations for polls' inaccuracy New link added January 2016

 

  1. BES
  2. LSE General Election2015
  3. Nottingham University : Ballots and Bullets
  4. Institute for Fiscal studies General Election Coverage
  5.  Click here for Loughborough University coverage of the Mass Media in the 2015 General Election  New link added May 2015

 

I have not considered the rise of UKIP and Green support in any of my documents on voting behaviour but here, at least are a  few useful inks.

  1. Understanding UKIP [Political Quarterly article by Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin
  2. Mapping UKIP's Polling Strength [BBC]
  3. UKIP: the Story of the rise of UKIP [BBC]
  4. Guardian coverage of UKIP [1500+ articles]
  5. Click here  and then follow the relevant links for YouGov data on long term trends  in voting intention and check the latest poll to see composition of UKIP and Green support by age, class, gender, region, past voting record
  6. Click here for YouGov data on trends in Green support: they have recently overtaken the Liberal Democrats in the polls.
  7. Click here for YouGov data on the social composition of Green and UKIP support 
  8. Click here for BBC coverage and here for Guardian coverage  of Rochester and Strood By-election and here for resignation of Emily Thornberry from Labour Shadow Cabinet.
  9. Click here for article on UKIP by Professor John Curtice .[From the British Social Attitudes Survey] New link added January 2016
  10. Click here for article on UKIP by Professor Matthew Goodwin New Link added December 2016
  11. Click here for Guardian Article on UKIP and the Stoke Central By-election New link added February 2016
  12. Click here for BBC coverage of Stoke Central By-election New link added February 2016